Desertification in the Middle East has reached critical and accelerating levels, threatening millions of lives, food security, and regional stability. According to a 2025 report by Arab News, nearly half of Iraq’s land is at risk due to severe drought and upstream damming, which have reduced river flows by 30-40% over the past four decades, contributing to the drying of the UNESCO-listed southern marshlands and forcing widespread displacement.
Similarly, Jordan, one of the world’s most water-scarce countries, faces depleted aquifers and declining agricultural viability, leading to increased food import dependence and heightened economic stress among vulnerable groups, including refugees . Iran is confronting water shortages across more than 100 million hectares at risk of desertification, with emergency water deliveries to urban centers sparking public protests, as detailed by the same Arab News analysis.
What is Desertification?
According to the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), desertification is the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid regions. These areas are collectively called drylands. In simple terms, desertification is the progressive loss of soil fertility and productivity. It is caused by climatic variations and human activities. The IPCC explains that desertification happens when a land’s biological productivity, ecological integrity, or value to humans declines over the long term.
Iraq’s Agricultural Lands Shrinking Amid Drought and Water Scarcity
Iraq is experiencing one of its worst water crises in nearly a century, with river flows in the Tigris and Euphrates reduced by 30-40% due to prolonged drought and upstream dam projects, primarily controlled by Turkey. The southern marshlands, a wetland complex designated as a UNESCO World Heritage site, are drying up, forcing mass displacement of communities reliant on farming and fishing.
According to official reports, water reserves have dropped to an 80-year low, dropping from an expected 18 billion cubic meters to just 10 billion cubic meters, forcing severe cuts in agricultural land usage. In the southern provinces, such as Dhi Qar and Maysan, farmland cultivation has been drastically reduced, with many farmers abandoning their lands due to insufficient water supply.
This reduction has led to increased dust storms, which adversely impact public health and daily life. Efforts to adopt modern irrigation techniques are underway, but experts warn that without urgent regional cooperation and sustainable water management, Iraq faces irreversible agricultural decline, food insecurity, and long-term socio-economic destabilization. These environmental and water challenges are compounded by political instability and infrastructure challenges, making the crisis acute and multifaceted.
Iran Faces Widespread Water Crisis and Social Unrest
Iran is facing an unprecedented water crisis, with over 100 million hectares of land classified as highly vulnerable to desertification. This crisis is marked by severe water shortages that have pushed urban centers to depend on emergency water deliveries. Reservoirs feeding major cities like Tehran are drastically depleted; for instance, the Lar Dam, a critical source for Tehran, is at just around 1-3% capacity. The ongoing drought, combined with mismanagement and inefficient water use, has led to frequent public protests and growing social unrest. Expanding sand dunes are threatening vital infrastructure and cultural heritage sites, while agricultural production, which consumes over 90% of Iran’s water despite utilizing only about 12% of the land area, continues to decline sharply. This decline poses serious risks to food security and rural livelihoods.
The water crisis has been aggravated by record-breaking temperatures surpassing 50°C in some regions, evaporation rates exceeding those of neighboring countries, and a population growth that intensifies demand. Many experts describe the situation as a “water bankruptcy,” indicating that the damage is extensive and not easily reversible. These factors collectively underscore how climatic extremes, coupled with systemic failures in resource management, drive the rapid advancement of desertification in Iran, causing profound socio-economic and environmental impacts.
Scientific Studies Link Climate and Human Factors to Desertification Surge
The 2025 report from Arab News, citing recent scientific research, explains that the Middle East is experiencing severe prolonged droughts, with rainfall reductions approaching 45% in some areas. This drastic decline in precipitation, coupled with decades of unsustainable land and water use, is driving intense desertification across the region. The studies observe that these climatic extremes lead to irreversible land degradation, causing fertile land to transform progressively into desert. The situation is especially dire in countries like Iran, Iraq, and Jordan, where shrinking water supplies and degraded soils accelerate the loss of productive land, exacerbating the environmental crisis. As a result, the once fertile landscapes are disappearing, creating a cascade of ecological, social, and economic problems that intensify regional vulnerability and threaten long-term sustainability.
Desertification poses a severe threat to food security, stability, and cultural heritage
across the Middle East, with potentially catastrophic consequences if current trends continue unchecked. According to an in-depth 2025 report by Arab News, agricultural systems are on the brink of collapse in several countries due to drastic reductions in water availability and land degradation. In Iraq, nearly half of the agricultural land is at risk of becoming desert, forcing rural populations to abandon farms and move to overcrowded urban centers or migrate across borders. This displacement raises humanitarian challenges and strains urban and neighboring country resources.
The report highlights the worsening water scarcity in Jordan and Iran, where aquifers are rapidly depleting, rainfall has dropped by up to 45%, and emergency water deliveries have become common. In Iran, advancing sand dunes threaten towns and ancient cultural sites, while agricultural output of essential crops like wheat and pistachios is declining, further jeopardizing national food security. These ecological pressures have sparked protests and social unrest, illustrating the political destabilization desertification can provoke. Moreover, escalating dust storms and diminishing water supplies degrade public health, particularly affecting vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly. The loss of fertile land and worsening environmental conditions endanger longstanding cultural landscapes across the region. Competition over ever-scarcer shared water resources risks igniting new conflicts, deepening geopolitical instability in an already fragile area.
Regional Governments Launch Strategic Responses to Desertification
Governments in the Middle East are increasingly implementing strategic frameworks to tackle desertification through sustainable resource management. A prime example is Qatar, which in October 2025 launched its National Strategy to Combat Desertification 2025-2030. This comprehensive plan aims to protect the country’s natural resources, combat land degradation, and mitigate the impacts of drought in alignment with Qatar’s National Vision 2030 and its Third National Development Strategy 2024-2030. The strategy is built on advanced scientific and technical foundations and focuses on improving the management efficiency of natural resources, strengthening environmental legislation, and achieving land degradation neutrality. It promotes ecosystem protection, rehabilitation of degraded lands, vegetation cover sustainability, and the stabilization of sand dunes.
Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of collaboration across national sectors and international partnerships, in line with Qatar’s commitments under the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 15: Life on Land. The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change underscores that these efforts reflect Qatar’s dedication to environmental protection, climate change mitigation, and sustainable development for future generations.
Conclusion
Desertification in the Middle East is a pressing issue that requires immediate and sustained action. While governmental initiatives and international support are steps in the right direction, the success of these efforts hinges on collaboration, sustainable land management practices, and a commitment to addressing the root causes of land degradation. The future of the region’s environment and its inhabitants depends on the actions taken today to combat desertification.
